What does it mean for Apple? I mean, really, how big an impact will this have on Apple?

I will speculate thusly:

• Tomorrow, the stock will take a hit. Plenty of people will have been holding for just such a day and will sell. If they bought stock any time before June of this year, they will make money. $500 invested in 2001 would yield about $25,000 today. Good for them. Some people (maybe I) will buy the stock.
• Two weeks from now, Apple will have invited the press to an event where they talk about this year’s line up of iPhone(s) and iPods. They will be totally awesome and the stock will climb for the rest of the year.
• A month from now, hundreds of people will either be in line to buy iPhone 5, or millions will have already purchased it. I am betting 3 million during opening weekend.
• 6 months from now, Apple will have had its best holiday quarter ever, with record breaking iPhone, iPad, iPod and Mac sales. The stock will continue to do well. Apple will announce the new iPad. It will make all competing tablets look pretty stupid.
• A year from now, people will be speculating about what the new iPhone is going to look like, the iPad will have dominated the tablet market for another year, and freed from the fears that Apple won’t survive with Jobs, the stock will have steamed up to about $550 per share. Apple will be the most valuable company in the world. Literally.
• 3 Years from now, most of the products that were in the product pipeline when Steve Jobs was the CEO will have made their way to market, and it will be Tim Cook (or Phill Schiller) that announces some great new product that I will buy with a great big smile.

Jobs’s greatest creation isn’t any Apple product. It is Apple itself.

Yet.

Apple is almost sure to release a new iPhone (or two) within the next 60 days. There are some excellent rumors floating around right now that could mean some great choices for consumers:

1. It is widely expected that the iPhone 5 is coming to town. We don’t know what it will looks like, or what new features it will have, but there are two theories. One is that it will be a marginal update similar to the update from 3G to 3GS (call it 4S) where all they do is up the processor and improve the camera. The other theory calls for a redesigned body shape and other goodies.
2. The Wall Street Journal – who tends to have solid sources – reported today that the iPhone 5 is coming to Sprint. This is cool because not only does it give consumers another choice, but Sprint has had a tendency to be more generous with their data plans than what AT&T and Verizon are currently offering.
3. Reuters – who can be hit or miss – is saying that Apple may offer a cheaper iPhone 4 model, with only 8 GBs of storage. To me, this is a fascinating move, and could be evidence of Apple living up to Tim Cooks promise that the iPhone would not be “just for the rich“. This could be a fabulous phone at a very reasonable price.

My wife and I lived in Thailand a few years back and got to be there for long enough to learn some of the cultural patterns, buying behaviors and business practices of Thais in Bangkok. In a city with 10 million people, they have really figured out urban life. Few people have cars, most don’t have any sort of kitchen and buy all of their food from street vendors and shops, and there are markets everywhere. The strange thing about the markets is that there are plenty of no-name, homemade clothes and products, and there is an equal portion of knock offs, rip offs, copies, generics, imitations, and downright forgeries. You can buy Gucci, Rolex, Louis Vitton, Chanel, Nike, and almost any other premium brand but somehow not pay the premium price.

One night, on our way to the sky train, my wife and I were perusing the wares of street vendors who laid out their blankets of merchandise directly under signs that read in English and Thai, “No selling in this area.” As we walked through the maze of Hello Kitty socks, we spotted a police officer. He was also casually looking over the products to see if there was anything that he liked. I didn’t get it, and I still kind of don’t. Shouldn’t he have told them to break it up? Shouldn’t he have fined them for selling knock offs in an area that was clearly marked as a no-sell territory?

Sometimes we felt more comfortable in the atmosphere of the many malls that Bangkok has to offer. At the Fortune Town Mall on Rama 9, there are two floors devoted entirely to tech. As we passed shop after no-name, owner operated shop, we noticed a software section that had all the big names for sale like Microsoft and Adobe. Up close, you could tell that the software was pirated and that the product cases didn’t have DVDs in them.

Likewise, down the hall, we found shops that we thought were selling DVD movies, but didn’t actually have DVDs in the cases. We asked them if we could buy the movies, so they rang up the transaction in the register and then sent one of the employees running down the hall. They told us to wait. When the runner returned, he held the daily newspaper awkwardly in his hand. They then looked around and spilled the two discs we had purchased from between the pages of the paper and gave them to us. They told us to move along because they didn’t want the cops to see.

Are you kidding me? You have an entire store that is obviously in the business of selling pirated DVDs, but you can’t hold them in the shop because the cops will see you? How is this possible?

The fact is, the country has no regard for intellectual property. I have heard that it is like this in several other Asian countries. The authorities may make token statements about protecting copyright and such, and I am sure that some DVD sellers get hit with fines now and again, but it was clear, over and over, that everyone knew that everyone else didn’t really care about intellectual property.

I can’t begin to imagine how this has stifled the Thai economy. Whenever we would talk about the possibility of selling our cloud based software to local schools, the first question every Thai person would ask is “how are you going to keep people from copying you?” Even after describing the technical difference between a physical software disc and a browser accessible application in the cloud where strait code copying is impossible, they were still certain that if we had a good idea and tried to sell it that some one else would come along and steal it.

And this is what our current system gets us: a market where people make great stuff, but aren’t primarily concerned with being copied in a fraudulent way. Say what you will about the specifics of the law, but I am quite happy with the benefits that we have reaped as a country because of our cultural respect for intellectual property, and the enforcement of IP laws.

For much more amazing thoughts on the subject, see Nilay Patel’s excellent editorial at TIMN.

On iOS 5:

Best features were literally copied from other mobile platforms.

True!…

One could argue that these are purposefully antagonistic ways of saying these things. Or, perhaps better said, purposefully belittling.

I can see why, from a tech pundit’s point of view, that “literally copied” is meant to have a punitive sting. However, these “copied” features are a big win for Apple. The iPhone has been in the lead in so many competitive areas (app store, ease of use, ecosystem integration, best “under finger” experience etc). However, some consumers have been hesitant to choose iPhone because of a specific advantage of a competitor.

For example, some people consider BBM the key feature of a BlackBerry. As of iOS 5, the “iOS doesn’t have it” argument is gone. The only thing left is what iPhone does better. Same with notifications and Android, which Jonathan Geller thinks Apple did better than Android.

Buyers now have all the reasons to choose the iPhone that they had before – AND they have no reason to buy any competitor.

About the only gripe left is Flash, but mostly from Mossberg.

While competitors like Google and Microsoft continue to pursue a strategy of “you everywhere” with front-facing web products that allow you to create and collaborate with nothing more than a connection and relatively modern browser, Apple seems to be moving almost backwards. Sure, syncing our devices is clearly an important and yet-to-be-solved problem, but Cupertino isn’t just improving sync across devices. It also seems to be concluding that it can’t — or won’t — compete on the web, and I think that’s a mistake.

I appreciate Topolsky’s desire for more and better from Apple, but I am concerned about the realization of what he is really asking for. If he is taking Google and Microsoft to be Apple’s competitors, I think it is worth noting that

• Google’s business model, and by extension goals, are different that Apple’s. Remember, if you don’t pay for it, you are the product.
• Microsoft’s business model (or lack thereof) shows that they may not understand how to make money from the web.

The issue I have with this [article], is it’s clouded by what [Josh] wants out of Cloud services, and not what can be done with it…I would rip Apple for doing what they entend to do poorly, and not for not doing what you wanted them to do

I get the feeling this is the case with non-tech industries that are innovation starved. Consider car tires. In case you haven’t noticed, basically nothing has changed about tires since the ’60s. 

Cars with tires are lame. Any one who has done a side-of-the-freeway tire change will tell you that. But car makers can’t release a car that eliminates the hassle because they can only run as fast as their partners, the tire companies. The tire companies have little incentive to disrupt their own industry. The tweel was announced in 2005, yet in 2011, they still do not have a market-ready product.

Sometimes having partners can reduce your ability to innovate.

Apple has been classic in their infrequent use of partnerships, probably for this very reason. CPU chip manufactures have been about the only company that Steve Jobs’ Apple has ever had a restrictive partnership with. New MacBooks can only have speed improvements when Intel makes them. Every other partner (Yahoo! weather on the iPhone for example) is not restrictive. Either one could break it off with little to no harm done.

To be clear, a mutually beneficial relationship is not the same thing as a partnership. Apple and Adobe have long benefited from each others products.¹ But when Apple released the iPhone without Flash, Adobe got pretty upset. But because Adobe wasn’t a partner, Apple got to do whatever they wanted.

So when considering a new partnership, be sure to ask “Does the partnership lock me into a situation that would limit my ability to innovate?”

¹During the dark times, small market segments kept the Mac alive, including design and publishing. Its a good bet that with out Adobe’s powerful authoring tools, Apple might not have made it.

You get to the parking lot entrance and there is an automated ticket system that allows you to put in your credit card. Then it let’s you in and you don’t have to take a ticket. When you leave, you put in the same credit card and it remembers you and charges the correct amount. Then it just prints a receipt for you. It is so nice to not have that little ticket that you are so worried about losing, and not have to interact with a booth worker.

Then there is the parking lot. Very neatly organized, and with a shuttle that comes frequently to clearly marked stops. They even provide little cards for you to remember where you parked. I don’t use this myself, but it is nice to know that someone thought through it.

There are two terminals. If you fly Delta, you are in terminal 2, if not, you are terminal 1. Maybe I am just an idiot, but have a hard time riding the shuttles or trains at airports and trying to know where to get off among the many stops with the many different, but similar sounding, names.

The craziest, and perhaps most delightful part of the airport is security. No joke. Its not that security itself is fun. It sucks everywhere. But they do a great job in Salt Lake. When the line is busy, they add staff. Amazing. They have staff members that come down the line and tell you if the lines are shorter in a different line, and how long the line will take. It’s the little things.

Free Wi-Fi. Can you believe that in 2011, there are major airports without Wi-Fi or that make you pay for it? Really? Atlanta, I’m looking at you. Thank you Salt Lake for realizing what a time killer airports are and how much free Wi-F helps.

Also, it’s not really the airport itself that I can thank for this, but all of the travelers that come to Salt Lake for the skiing. When you come with your giant duffles full of ski gear, and have to check your bags, it make my trip past the counter with my preprinted boarding pass very satisfying.

The airport also has this great waiting lot for people that cone to pick up passengers on arriving flights. There are big electronic boards that give the flight statuses so you know when to drive up to the terminal area. Love it!

I know there are other airports that do great thing. I am just glad that ol’ SLC is one of them.

Apple’s revamped iPad, the iPad 2, is certainly an improvement over the original iPad. But when compared head to head against the Motorola Xoom, the Xoom still wins. Here’s why.

As I explained in a previous blog, Eight reasons the Motorola Xoom beats the iPad, the Xoom is far superior to the original iPad. And now that the iPad 2 has been announced, it’s clear that the Xoom is superior to the new iPad, for almost all of the same reasons.

Ok, he wrote something before and he needs to defend it. Fair enough, let the defense begin.

The major new additions to the iPad include a dual-core processor and front and rear cameras, so in those instances, it’s caught up to the Xoom. The new svelter and slightly thinner design is good as well. A gyroscope has been added, which the Xoom already has. And software tweaks, via the new iOS 4.3, are welcome as well.

So for starters…well ok, the iPad is sexier, but that doesn’t make it better, it’s just good. And the other stuff puts it on par with the Xoom. Let’s see what else the defense has.

But that still leaves the Xoom a better tablet than the iPad. Start with the operating system. With iOS 4.3, iOS was tweaked but didn’t get a dramatic overhaul. Android 3.0, called Honeycomb, is simply better than the iOS for a number of reasons.

So we are going to say that the operating system is a feature. Ok. We can do that. An operating system that Motorola depends on someone else* to make for it is a feature. Check. And he proposes Honeycomb is simply better. And what are the specific reasons?

It handles notifications, multi-tasking and app switching better. The widgets still outpace anything on the iOS.

“It” meaning the OS, which is a feature that Motorola has outsourced, handles notifications better. One point for the Xoom. Although I would say it is a matter of opinion, most people agree this is true. The next opinion is that multi-tasking and app switching is handled better on the Xoom Honeycomb. If allowing any application to run whatever it wants without you knowing is considered better, then Xoom gets another point. If, however, you don’t want to have to manage what is running on your device, iPad iOS gets the point. Widgets don’t exist on iOS. There is a point for Xoom. So what other specific reasons are there?

And Honeycomb has more features and is more customizable. The iOS 4.3 tweaks did nothing to change any of that.

More features…I see…like um…features that aren’t on iOS like…well…well it is more customizable. Like you can theme your home screens. I mean I guess that is what he is talking about since he didn’t mention anything specific. So suddenly Apple isn’t the one that is putting in low-function, high beauty stuff – it’s Android. Well what else makes Xoom better?

The Chrome-like browser built into Xoom trumps the Safari running on the iPad 2. Xoom’s browser sports tabs, will sync bookmarks with PC, Mac, and Linux versions of Chrome, and uses a single box for typing URLs and searching.

I think that tabbed browsing is cool. iOS also syncs bookmarks though Mobile Me. And as for a single box…really? That is important? If you say so.

Xoom, of course, will be able to play Flash relatively soon. The iPad 2 will never do it. Clearly, being able to run Flash is better than being banned from running Flash.

Will be. So not now, but later. And I truly hope that Xoom users find that Flash works great. Because from what I have seen of Flash on Android, it kind of sucks. When it doesn’t suck, Xoom will get a point.

When you buy an iPad 2, you’ll be subject to the whims of what Apple wants you to download and doesn’t want you to download. Want to be able to get information from the WikiLeaks site using an app, for example? Don’t try doing it on your iPad 2 — Apple has banned any app from letting you do that. It bans plenty of other apps as well. With the Xoom, you can download and use any app you want.

Really? Apps? You want to go there? I am not even going to make a comparison to the number of quality apps in each store, or the number of tablet specific apps. I will just say that some users, like me, prefer Apple’s protective nature and would say that this is good feature. You never have to worry about malware on an iOS device If you want other stuff, you can use the web to get it. Even WikiLeaks.

Finally, the Xoom’s built-in apps such as Gmail, Google Maps, and Google Calendar still trump anything built into the iPad 2.

How are they better? The world may never know what the author was thinking because he doesn’t get specific. But just know that in the opinion of Gralla, Apple, legendary for interface design, and usability/ease of use, is somehow, in some way, lacking in its built in applications, even though each of the services described above can be used seamlessly with iOS’s build in apps, or as great web apps. Somehow, Androids apps “trump” iOS’s.

And using the Xoom’s Tegra 2 chip, you get nifty new features, such as vector graphics and 3D rendering in Google Maps.

3D rending is definitely nifty. I am not sure how useful it is in maps, but I guess users will just have to get by with the hundreds of navigation/maps apps that currently exist on the iOS app store. Including Google Earth. As for 3D rendering generally, I think iOS is doing just fine.

Unfortunatley, that is the complete list of reasons that the “Xoom is the clear winner.” Let’s recap the points awarded:

• Better notification handling
• 1/2 point for multitasking/app switching
• Widgets
• 1/2 point for some vague “features” and “customizability”
• 1 point for tabbed browsing and the single box (I just can’t believe that is a top feature)
• 1 potential future point for the ability run Flash in a non-sucky way
• 1 point if you feel comfortable being your own app screener

That is it folks. 6 points at most. Those are your key differentiators. But I don’t really think it is a spec battle. I think it is an experience battle. From what I have heard about the iPad’s better battery life, app quality and selection and seamless integration into technology you already use, it sounds like the overall experience will be better. And I think that word will continue to spread.

* From Engadget’s review of the Xoom: “Strangely, there’s a microSD slot present on the device, but it’s non-functioning at this point. When we pressed Motorola, the company made it sound like it was waiting on a software update from Google to enable the slot. Very strange stuff.”

The only way for them to even break-even is to compete, not on content, but on experience. It has to be smoother, faster, more attractive, easier to read, more entertaining (not the content, the experience) or more customizable or something. If they an do that, they might just win.